The genesis of the economic war between Russia and the west

Jun 15, 2024

In the intricate dance of international relations, the legal landscape is currently
contending with a particularly complex scenario: the freezing of Russia’s assets in the
banking systems of key Western nations including the European Union, the United
States, Canada, and Japan. This unprecedented legal conundrum is pushing the
boundaries of jurisprudence as Western powers seek robust legal frameworks to
facilitate the confiscation of Russian assets – a move that challenges the global sanctity
of ownership rights.


At the heart of this issue lies the distinction between freezing and confiscating assets.
Freezing, by its nature, is a temporary measure aimed at preserving ownership rights,
while confiscation represents a permanent seizure. However, any attempt to circumvent
sanctions invariably triggers legal action towards confiscation.
Currently, approximately USD300 billion of Russian funds, with a significant portion
managed by the International Financial Company Euroclear in Belgium, are under
freeze. The accrued interest on these funds, estimated at USD3.6 billion annually, is
earmarked to support Ukrainian military activities (90%) and provide financial aid to Kiev
(10%). Moreover, Western powers are exploring innovative financial mechanisms to
maximize revenue from confiscated Russian assets. One proposal involves
collateralizing these assets to secure loans ranging from USD40 to USD60 billion, with
the accrued interest used to remunerate a consortium of lenders over a ten-year period.
In response, Moscow is devising retaliatory strategies, including the potential seizure of
European assets owned by European investors and exploring asset swaps between
Russian and European investors. The energy sector, particularly Russia’s dominance in
supplying natural gas to Europe via Ukraine, emerges as a pivotal leverage point for the
Kremlin.


The ramifications of these developments extend beyond geopolitics to the realm of
international economics. The specter of powerful nations freezing the assets of others
through economic sanctions portends a future fraught with uncertainty. Such actions
could precipitate a cascading effect, destabilizing global money and capital markets,
rendering them more vulnerable and volatile. For instance, the hypothetical scenario of
China and Russia withdrawing their assets from the Eurozone could trigger a drastic
devaluation of the Euro and prompt a mass exodus of investments from the region.
As the international community grapples with these intricate legal and economic
dilemmas, it is imperative to tread cautiously. The path ahead is fraught with pitfalls, and
missteps could precipitate a descent into chaos. Only through nuanced diplomacy,
robust legal frameworks, and a commitment to multilateral cooperation can we navigate
these turbulent waters and safeguard the stability of the global economic order.


– Fadi Hassan